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700th Post One of the first things that popped into my head upon starting to read The Wisdom of Crowds was the National Bracket that ESPN does every year to determine the "consensus" of who is gonna win the big dance. I'm sure it doesn't qualify as a stastically significant example, but I always figured the crowd would do a decent job of separating the "men from the boys", as it were. Turns out I'm wrong. Comparing the 2005 National Bracket with the actual results, the crowd did pretty good in the first round - choosing 25 of the 32 games correctly. Accuracy then dropped to 50% for rounds 2, 3 and 4, but Illinios and UNC did end up facing off in the championship game as predicted. Illinois was the slight favorite, but the crowd let me down yet again...
I'll reblog this in a month or so once the dust has settled to see if we got any smarter this year.
posted by Brad at 3/13/2006 05:31:00 PM | permalink |
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